Disclaimer:
Use of the information and data contained on this WWW site on these pages is at your sole risk. If you rely on the information on this Site you are responsible for ensuring by independent verification its accuracy or completeness. The author assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of forward-looking projections contained herein and you should only use these projections at your own risk.
An explanation of this graph appears below the chart.
New and updated model - 12/07 The only model change is a slight modification to the inflation expection component. It now better reflects inflation on an international basis and not simply the dollar based CPI number. The model and all other components remain unchanged.
o The Blue line represents a fair market value that a prudent investor should be willing to pay for the S & P 500 index given economic and earnings data.
o The Red line represents a historical value as determined by the market.
o This valuation method results in a firm number 6 months prior to the month being evaluated. Estimates for months 7 to 12 are subject to change as data used for these months firm up. (no longer preliminary at the source)
o All future valuations are made using only economic and S&P data.
o No S&P price data, past or present, is used in making the valuation.
o Each valuation point on the Blue line was made 6 months prior to the date for which it is shown. It has not been modified for events happening after the valuation was made.
o The S & P number represented as actual is the closing price for that month.